This site was created by the Next Century Seminar, Kalamazoo College. Fall Quarter 1998

To accurately predict the future, one must know the unknowable. Yet, we can't make intelligent decisions without considering what the future will bring. Forecasts can be based on the best available data and a set of reasonable assumptions, but critical uncertainties will always exist. Scenario planning attempts to make this uncertainty explicit. Instead of predicting a single future, scenario planning presents a set of possible futures. This allows decision-makers to test their decisions against a variety of possible outcomes.

This website explores four futures for the City of Kalamazoo.

1. "Kalamazoo: an Erupting Economy" Kalamazoo's economy grows rapidly for decades. By: Jeremy Crew, Tom Coke, Teri Fox, and Rick Sharp

2. "Yes, There Really Was a Kalamazoo" Kalamazoo enters a long period of decline. By: Stacey Nastase, Megan Blair, Willie Parks, Dan Stoll, and Jennifer DeZwann

3. "Jimmy John Replaces Upjohn" Kalamazoo follows an alternative path, as its student population becomes the dominant force. By: Emily Siegel, Brian Foley, Brian Cox, and Kyle Harding

4. "Kalamazoo: As it is, so it shall be" Current trends dominate Kalamazoo's future. By : Erik Snyder, Jason Charnley, Rich Goheen, Rachel Klomp, and Elizabeth Via Cava

Each scenario is based on the same information-- the trends, announcements, conditions, and plans of November 1998-- but the predicted futures are markedly different: different problems, different opportunities, different threats, different solutions. We can not say which future will occur, but considering the possibilities will better prepare us for any future.

Our main source for scenario planning was The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz (Doubleday 1991). The Global Business Network does professional scenario planning; they offer online information and a substantial list of useful books. Wired Magazine maintains several online discussions of scenario building.

We read several essays on urban design
1. “Home from Nowhere” James Howard Kunstler (Read our synopsis by Jeremy Crew, Brian Foley, and Jason Charnley)
2. “A Good Place to Live” Philip Langdon (Read our synopsis by Rachel Klomp, Stacey Nastase, and Emily Siegel)
3. “A Critique of Neotraditionalism” Randal O'Toole (Read our synopsis by Richie Goheen, Willie Parks, Rick Sharp)
4. “Reshaping America” Christopher B. Leinberger and Charles Lockwood (Read our synopsis by Teryn Fox, Brian Cox, and Jennfier DeZwaan)
5. “What Main Street Can Learn from the Mall” Steven Lagerfeld (Read our synopsis by Erik Snyder, Dan Stoll, Tom Coke)
6. “Hot Spots: A Field Guide to Your Local Economy” Joel Garreau, (Read our synopsis by Elizabeth Via Cava, Kyle Harding, Megan Blair )

See City sources for links to other online urban material.

Sources about the future of society:

“Jihad vs McWorld” Benjamin Barber on global change.

“Caught” Phil Patton and “The Transparent Society” David Brin on privacy and surveillance.

The Diamond Age by Neal Stephenson (Bantam Books 1995).

Sources of information about Kalamazoo include:

City of Kalamazoo Homepage,

City of Portage,

Kalamazoo County Connection,

Kalamazoo Comprehensive Plan,

Statistics for Greater Kalamazoo from TeleCITY,

Kalamazoo College Homepage.

This site created by:

Megan Blair, Jason Charnley, Tom Coke, Brian Cox, Jeremy Crew, Jennifer DeZwann, Brian Foley, Teri Fox, Rich Goheen, Kyle Harding, Rachel Klomp, Stacey Nastase, Willie Parks, Rick Sharp, Emily Siegal, Erik Snyder, Dan Stoll, and Elizabeth Via Cava as part of their seminar directed by Chuck Stull.

The authors welcome your comments. Please email to cstull@kzoo.edu

The Next Century Seminar homepage

Chuck Stull's Homepage