The final exam will be comprehensive. You should review the material we covered for exam 1 and exam 2. You will need a calculator for this exam
I. Inference
A. Type I and Type II error
B. Hypothesis Testing
1. specify null and alternative hypotheses
2. specify confidence interval
3. calculate critical values
1. standard error
2. normal table or t-table
4. compare sample statistic to critical value
1. reject null hypothesis
2. don't reject ("accept") null
II. Hypothesis Testing across populations
A. Difference of means
B. Difference of proportions
C. Mean of differences
III. Regression
A. Dependent (y) and independent (x) variables
1. Y = a + bX
2. multiple regression
B. Ordinary Least Squares
1. best, linear, unbiased estimate
2. computer estimation
C. Variations on OLS
1. dummy variables
2. transforming non-linear relations to use OLS
a. quadratic terms
b. natural logs
C. Coefficient estimates
D. Hypothesis testing
1. standard error of the coefficient
2. "t-statistics"
E. R-squared
IV. Regression Problems
A. Correlation is not causality
B. Data collection must be methodologically sound
1. random sample, representative of population
2. avoid bias in survey questions
3. control groups in experiments
C. Statistical Issues
1. autocorrelation
2. heteroskedasticity
3. multicollinearity
V. Forecasting
A. Use estimated coefficients to forecast Y, given new X variables
B. Conditional forecasts
C. Systems of Equations
D. trends and time series
VI. Reporting Statistics
A. Problems in reading statistical reports
B. Graphing issues
VII. Time series
A. Trends
1. growth over time
2. Y = a + bT
3. non-linear
B. Fluctuation
1. seasonal
2. cyclical
3. random
4. moving average
D. Lagged values of Y
1. random walk
2. autoregressive process
E. ARIMA
Department of Economics (information from the Registrar's office)